MEX Liga MX - Round 8

Toluca

12 Sep

5 - 2

Full time

Atlas

HT: 3-0FT: 5-2

Alexis Vega19’ (P)

51’Florián Monzón

Jesús Angulo22’

79’, 81’Luis Lopes

Federico Viñas29’

João Paulo Dias Fernandes53’

Jorge Rodríguez60’ (OG)

HOME

69%

DRAW

18%

AWAY

13%

AI Insights

True AI

62%

Better pick

Over 2.5

Total Goals

Confidence MediumMarkets 3Risk Medium

TrueAI figures are statistical probabilities for informational purposes only — not betting advice. 18+ only. Full disclaimer

Expected Goals

3.2Goals/match

Expected Total Corners

10.7Corners/match

10.78.05.32.7

015’45’90’

Total Goals (Line 2.5)

O/U

62%Medium

Over 62%Under 38%

Both teams score

BTTS

60%Yes · Medium

Toluca78%

Atlas78%

Chance each side scores at least once; BTTS = both do.

1x2

True AI

Home

Toluca Win

69%

Draw

18%

Away

Atlas Win

13%

The Home team is the clear favourite at 69%.

Handicap

True AI

Atlas+1.5

52%

Toluca−1.5

48%

The bet favored by TrueAI: Atlas +1.5

How this AI prediction is made

TrueAI generates these probabilities from historical results, recent form, head-to-head records and market movements for Toluca and Atlas.

Informational purposes only. The probabilities on this page are model estimates, not certainties, and are published for informational and entertainment purposes. Nothing here is betting, financial or professional advice, and TrueScore does not accept or facilitate wagers.

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Prediction last updated: 29 Oct 2026, 11:09 (UTC)

Stats

Events Commentary

Full Time5-2

+10 minute of added time

89’

Adrian MoraManuel Capasso

Luan GarciaAlexis Vega

85’

83’

J. Serrato

5-2

81’

Luis Lopes

80’

J. SerratoLuís André Leite Esteves

Pavel PérezNicolás Castro

72’

Víctor GuzmánJesús Angulo

72’

62’

Elías MontielJorge Sánchez

Jorge Rodríguez

60’

5-1

Everardo LopezHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro

58’

57’

Milton Valenzuela

Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro

57’

João Paulo Dias FernandesJesús Angulo

53’

4-1

3-1

51’

Florián Monzón

Luís André Leite Esteves

45’

Sergio HernándezPaulo Ramirez

45’

Luis LopesArturo González

João Paulo Dias FernandesFederico Viñas

45’

HT 3-0

+5 minute of added time

Federico ViñasBruno Méndez

29’

3-0

24’

Manuel Capasso

Jesús AnguloNicolás Castro

22’

2-0

Alexis Vega

19’

1-0

79’

J. SerratoLuís André Leite Esteves

5-2

79’

Luis Lopes

81’

J. Serrato

Luan GarciaAlexis Vega

83’

87’

Adrian MoraManuel Capasso

Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro

17’

Start0-0

Goal

Own Goal

Penalty

Penalty missed

Red card

Yellow card

Second yellow

Injury time

Substitution

Var

Offside

Match End.

90'+11'

90'+11' Second Half ends, Toluca 5, Atlas 2.

90'+6'

90'+6' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Everardo López.

90'+4'

90'+4' Diego Barbosa (Toluca) foul.

90'+4'

90'+4' Jesús Serrato (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

90'+3'

90'+3' Attempt missed.Diego Barbosa (Toluca)’s right foot shot.Paulinho assists.

90'+2'

90'+2' Luan (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

90'+2'

90'+2' Duk (Atlas) foul.

90'+1'

90'+1' Pável Pérez (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

90'+1'

90'+1' Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

90'+1'

90'+1' Sergio Hernández (Atlas) foul.

90'

90' Fourth official has announced 10 minutes of added time.

90'

90' Attempt missed.Víctor Ríos (Atlas)’s right foot shot.

89'

89' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Adrián Mora,Substitution out Manuel Capasso because of an injury.

88'

88' Delay over.The match resumes.

87'

87' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Adrián Mora,Substitution out Manuel Capasso because of an injury.

87'

87' The match delays (Toluca).

87'

87' The match delays because Manuel Capasso (Atlas) injured.

86'

86' Víctor Guzmán (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

86'

86' Sergio Hernández (Atlas) foul.

85'

85' Substitution, Toluca.Substituton in Luan,Substitution out Alexis Vega.

83'

83' Substitution, Toluca.Substituton in Luan,Substitution out Alexis Vega.

83'

83' Yellow card by Jesús Serrato (Atlas) for a bad foul.

83'

83' Jesús Serrato (Atlas) foul.

83'

83' Federico Pereira (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

81'

81' Yellow card by Jesús Serrato (Atlas) for a bad foul.

81'

81' Federico Pereira (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

81'

81' Jesús Serrato (Atlas) foul.

80'

80' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Jesús Serrato,Substitution out Luís Esteves.

79'

79' Goal! Toluca 5, Atlas 2.Duk (Atlas)’s right foot shot.

78'

78' Attempt missed.Duk (Atlas)’s left foot shot is high and wide to the left.Elías Montiel with a through ball assists.

78'

78' Attempt missed.Duk (Atlas)’s right foot shot.

74'

74' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Federico Pereira.

73'

73' Offside, Toluca.Alexis Vega is caught offside.

72'

72' Paulinho (Toluca) gets a free kick on the right wing.

72'

72' Substitution, Toluca.Substituton in Pável Pérez,Substitution out Nicolás Castro.

72'

72' Manuel Capasso (Atlas) foul.

72'

72' Substitution, Toluca.Substituton in Víctor Guzmán,Substitution out Jesús Angulo.

65'

65' Jorge Rodríguez (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

65'

65' Bruno Méndez (Toluca) foul.

64'

64' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Everardo López.

62'

62' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Elías Montiel,Substitution out Jorge Sánchez.

62'

62' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Elías Montiel,Substitution out Jorge Sánchez because of an injury.

62'

62' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Elías Montiel,Substitution out Víctor Ríos because of an injury.

62'

62' Delay over.The match resumes.

61'

61' The match delays because Víctor Ríos (Atlas) injured.

60'

60' Own Goal by Jorge Rodríguez, Atlas.Toluca 5, Atlas 1.

59'

59' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Bruno Méndez.

58'

58' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Bruno Méndez.

58'

58' Attempt blocked.Duk (Atlas)’s right foot shot.

58'

58' Substitution, Toluca.Substituton in Everardo López,Substitution out Helinho.

57'

57' Yellow card by Milton Valenzuela (Atlas).

57'

57' Yellow card by Helinho (Toluca).

57'

57' Yellow card by Helinho (Toluca) for a bad foul.

57'

57' Yellow card by Duk (Atlas).

55'

55' Nicolás Castro (Toluca) foul.

55'

55' Milton Valenzuela (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

54'

54' Jesús Angulo (Toluca) foul.

54'

54' Jorge Sánchez (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

53'

53' Goal! Toluca 4, Atlas 1.Paulinho (Toluca)’s left foot shot to the high centre of the goal.Jesús Angulo assists.

51'

51' Goal! Toluca 3, Atlas 1.Florián Monzón (Atlas)’s header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.Luís Esteves with a cross following a corner assists.

51'

51' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Ronaldo Beltrán.

49'

49' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Jesús Gallardo.

45'+6'

45'+6'First Half ends, Toluca 3, Atlas 0.

45'+6'

45'+6'Jesús Angulo (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

45'+6'

45'+6'Gaddi Aguirre (Atlas) foul.

45'+6'

45'+6'Attempt blocked.Gaddi Aguirre (Atlas)’s left foot shot.Florián Monzón assists.

45'+6'

45'+6' First Half ends, Toluca 3, Atlas 0.

45'+6'

45'+6' Jesús Angulo (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

45'+6'

45'+6' Gaddi Aguirre (Atlas) foul.

45'+6'

45'+6' Attempt blocked.Gaddi Aguirre (Atlas)’s left foot shot.Florián Monzón assists.

45'+5'

45'+5'Offside, Toluca.Jesús Angulo is caught offside.

45'+5'

45'+5' Offside, Toluca.Jesús Angulo is caught offside.

45'+5'

45'+5' Offside, Toluca.Federico Viñas is caught offside.

45'+3'

45'+3'Federico Pereira (Toluca) foul.

45'+3'

45'+3'Arturo González (Atlas) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

45'+3'

45'+3' Federico Pereira (Toluca) foul.

45'+3'

45'+3' Arturo González (Atlas) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

45'+1'

45'+1'Franco Romero (Toluca) foul.

45'+1'

45'+1'Jorge Sánchez (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

45'+1'

45'+1' Franco Romero (Toluca) foul.

45'+1'

45'+1' Jorge Sánchez (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

45'

45' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Sergio Hernández,Substitution out Paulo Ramírez.

45'

45' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Sergio Hernández,Substitution out Jorge Rodríguez.

45'

45' Substitution, Atlas.Substituton in Duk,Substitution out Arturo González.

45'

45' Substitution, Toluca.Substituton in Paulinho,Substitution out Federico Viñas.

45'

45' Second Half begins Toluca 3, Atlas 0.

45'

45'Fourth official has announced 5 minutes of added time.

45'

45'Attempt missed.Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)’s header from the right side of the six yard box is just a bit too high.Alexis Vega with a cross following a corner assists.

45'

45'Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Milton Valenzuela.

45'

45' Attempt missed.Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)’s header from the right side of the six yard box is just a bit too high.Alexis Vega with a cross following a corner assists.

45'

45' Fourth official has announced 5 minutes of added time.

45'

45' Attempt missed.Federico Viñas (Toluca)’s header from the centre of the box is just a bit too high.Alexis Vega with a cross following a corner assists.

45'

45' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Milton Valenzuela.

44'

44'Attempt saved.Goalkeeper saves Jesús Angulo (Toluca)’s left foot shot from from outside the box in the bottom right corner by Camilo Vargas (Toluca).

44'

44' Attempt saved.Goalkeeper saves Jesús Angulo (Toluca)’s left foot shot from from outside the box in the bottom right corner by Camilo Vargas (Toluca).

40'

40'Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) foul.

40'

40'Arturo González (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

40'

40' Arturo González (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

40'

40' Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) foul.

39'

39'Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Jorge Rodríguez.

39'

39'Attempt blocked.Diego Barbosa (Toluca)’s right foot shot.Federico Viñas assists.

39'

39' Attempt blocked.Diego Barbosa (Toluca)’s right foot shot.Federico Viñas assists.

39'

39' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Jorge Rodríguez.

38'

38'Attempt missed.Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)’s left foot shot.Diego Barbosa assists.

38'

38'Bruno Méndez (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

38'

38'Florián Monzón (Atlas) foul.

38'

38' Attempt missed.Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)’s left foot shot.Diego Barbosa assists.

38'

38' Florián Monzón (Atlas) foul.

38'

38' Bruno Méndez (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

35'

35'Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) foul.

35'

35'Víctor Ríos (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

35'

35'Attempt missed.Luís Esteves (Atlas)’s right foot shot.Jorge Sánchez assists.

35'

35' Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) foul.

35'

35' Víctor Ríos (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

35'

35' Attempt missed.Luís Esteves (Atlas)’s right foot shot.Jorge Sánchez assists.

35'

35' Attempt missed.Luís Esteves (Atlas)’s right foot shot.

34'

34'Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Jesús Gallardo.

34'

34' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Jesús Gallardo.

32'

32' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Jorge Rodríguez.

31'

31'Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Jorge Rodríguez.

31'

31' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Jorge Rodríguez.

30'

30'Attempt missed.Paulo Ramírez (Atlas)’s left foot shot.

30'

30'Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Ronaldo Beltrán.

30'

30' Attempt missed.Paulo Ramírez (Atlas)’s left foot shot.

30'

30' Attempt missed.Gaddi Aguirre (Atlas)’s left foot shot.

30'

30' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Ronaldo Beltrán.

29'

29'Goal! Toluca 3, Atlas 0.Federico Viñas (Toluca)’s left foot shot.Bruno Méndez assists.

29'

29' Goal! Toluca 3, Atlas 0.Federico Viñas (Toluca)’s left foot shot.Bruno Méndez assists.

26'

26'Attempt missed.Nicolás Castro (Toluca)’s header from the centre of the box is just a bit too high.Jesús Angulo following a set piece situation assists.

26'

26' Attempt missed.Nicolás Castro (Toluca)’s header from the centre of the box is just a bit too high.Jesús Angulo following a set piece situation assists.

25'

25'Alexis Vega (Toluca) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

25'

25'Víctor Ríos (Atlas) foul.

25'

25'Attempt blocked.Federico Viñas (Toluca)’s header from the centre of the box Defensive player blocked.Alexis Vega with a cross assists.

25'

25' Víctor Ríos (Atlas) foul.

25'

25' Attempt blocked.Federico Viñas (Toluca)’s header from the centre of the box Defensive player blocked.Alexis Vega with a cross assists.

25'

25' Alexis Vega (Toluca) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

24'

24'Yellow card by Manuel Capasso (Atlas) for a bad foul.

24'

24'Federico Viñas (Toluca) gets a free kick on the right wing.

24'

24'Manuel Capasso (Atlas) foul.

24'

24' Yellow card by Manuel Capasso (Atlas) for a bad foul.

24'

24' Federico Viñas (Toluca) gets a free kick on the right wing.

24'

24' Manuel Capasso (Atlas) foul.

22'

22'Goal! Toluca 2, Atlas 0.Jesús Angulo (Toluca)’s right foot shot to the centre of the goal.Nicolás Castro assists.

22'

22' Goal! Toluca 2, Atlas 0.Jesús Angulo (Toluca)’s right foot shot to the centre of the goal.Nicolás Castro assists.

21'

21'Attempt missed.Federico Viñas (Toluca)’s left foot shot.Diego Barbosa assists.

21'

21' Attempt missed.Federico Viñas (Toluca)’s left foot shot.Diego Barbosa assists.

19'

19'Goal! Toluca 1, Atlas 0.Alexis Vega (Toluca) takes a penalty kick with a’s right foot shot.

19'

19' Goal! Toluca 1, Atlas 0.Alexis Vega (Toluca) takes a penalty kick with a’s right foot shot.

17'

17'VAR Decision: Penalty Toluca.

17'

17'Florián Monzón (Atlas) with a handball in the penalty area conceded the penalty.

17'

17' Florián Monzón (Atlas) with a handball in the penalty area conceded the penalty.

17'

17' VAR Decision: Penalty Toluca.

17'

17' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Florián Monzón.

16'

16'Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Florián Monzón.

16'

16'Attempt blocked.Alexis Vega (Toluca)’s right foot shot.Helinho assists.

16'

16' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Florián Monzón.

16'

16' Attempt blocked.Alexis Vega (Toluca)’s right foot shot.Helinho assists.

15'

15'Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Camilo Vargas.

15'

15'Attempt saved.Goalkeeper saves Helinho (Toluca)’s left foot shot from from outside the box in the top left corner by Camilo Vargas (Toluca).Nicolás Castro assists.

15'

15' Attempt saved.Goalkeeper saves Helinho (Toluca)’s left foot shot from from outside the box in the top left corner by Camilo Vargas (Toluca).Nicolás Castro assists.

15'

15' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Camilo Vargas.

14'

14'Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Alexis Vega.

14'

14'Attempt blocked.Luís Esteves (Atlas)’s right foot shot Defensive player blocked.Florián Monzón assists.

14'

14' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Alexis Vega.

14'

14' Corner, Atlas.Conceded by Nicolás Castro.

14'

14' Attempt blocked.Luís Esteves (Atlas)’s right foot shot Defensive player blocked.Florián Monzón assists.

12'

12'(Atlas) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

12'

12'Ronaldo Beltrán (Toluca).

12'

12' Ronaldo Beltrán (Toluca).

12'

12' (Atlas) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

12'

12' Handball by Ronaldo Beltrán (Toluca).

12'

12' Ronaldo Beltrán (Toluca) foul.

7'Offside, Toluca.Nicolás Castro is caught offside.

7'Víctor Ríos (Atlas) foul.

7'Franco Romero (Toluca) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

7'Manuel Capasso (Atlas) foul.

7'Federico Viñas (Toluca) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

7' Offside, Toluca.Nicolás Castro is caught offside.

7' Víctor Ríos (Atlas) foul.

7' Franco Romero (Toluca) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

7' Manuel Capasso (Atlas) foul.

7' Federico Viñas (Toluca) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

5'Manuel Capasso (Atlas) foul.

5'Federico Viñas (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

5'Víctor Ríos (Atlas) hits the left post with a’s right foot shot.Arturo González assists.

5' Manuel Capasso (Atlas) foul.

5' Federico Viñas (Toluca) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

5' Víctor Ríos (Atlas) hits the left post with a’s right foot shot.Arturo González assists.

4' Franco Romero (Toluca) foul.

4'Luís Esteves (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

4'Bruno Méndez (Toluca) foul.

4' Luís Esteves (Atlas) gets a free kick in the defensive half.

4' Bruno Méndez (Toluca) foul.

3'Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Manuel Capasso.

3' Corner, Toluca.Conceded by Manuel Capasso.

2'Florián Monzón (Atlas) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

2'Bruno Méndez (Toluca) foul.

2' Bruno Méndez (Toluca) foul.

2' Florián Monzón (Atlas) gets a free kick in the attacking half.

HEAD TO HEAD

14 wins

47%

10 draws

33%

6 wins

20%

Standing

See All

TeamPGDPTS

Club America141528

Cruz Azul14926

Guadalajara14926

Atlas14-124

Toluca141023

Club Leon14322

Club Tijuana14421

Monterrey13520

Queretaro FC13-120

Santos Laguna14019

Atletico San Luis14-319

Pumas14-317

Pachuca14316

Puebla14-516

Tigres UANL14-415

Atlante14-614

Necaxa14-1110

FC Juarez14-245

Team form

Toluca

Atlas

Mario Terrazas Chavez

Referee

Stadium

Estadio Nemesio Diez

Capacity

30,000

Location

Toluca, Mexico

Toluca vs Atlas AI Prediction vs Final Result

AI Insights

Expected Goals

Expected Total Corners

Total Goals (Line 2.5)

Both teams score

1x2

Handicap

How this AI prediction is made

Stats

Standing

Team form

Hot AI Predictions Today